Trends in emerging infectious diseases according to major environmental changes


Jo Hyun-Jung, Lee Hee-Il, Lee Sang-Won
Division of Strategic Planning for Emerging Infectious Diseases, KCDC

Background: Emerging infectious diseases are anticipated to spread and lead to global crisis. These are divided into newly emerging infectious diseases such as human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection, severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) and Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS) and reemerging infectious diseases such as dengue fever and cholera.
Present: Emerging infectious diseases are related to a number of factors such as climate change, increased international exchange, ecosystem changes, and drug resistance. Furthermore it is difficult to anticipate the spread of diseases and their damage to society. Therefore, it is important to exhaustively analyze the spread of diseases and proactively prepare for crisis.
Future perspectives: Scenarios were established for each major factor (climate change, ecosystem change, travel, and land use changes). Emerging infectious diseases were reviewed according to each scenario. Consequently, arthropod-borne infectious diseases are expected to be the most influential disease in the future, being followed by a zoonosis such as avian influenza human infection.
The risk factors of emerging infectious disease are inter-connected and complex. It is required to develop predictive models wthrough multi-sectoral collaboration. These models will contribute to the precognitive awareness of risks and effective responses.