Disease forecasting

• Strengthening ongoing infectious disease response capabilities after the end of the COVID-19 pandemic and enhancing the infectious disease prediction system to prepare for future pandemics

• Predicting the scale of ongoing infectious diseases such as COVID-19 and influenza to provide a basis for quarantine response
• Identifying the latest technological trends from various fields such as AI, statistics, and mathematics, and promoting the development and enhancement of prediction methodologies based on this
• Promoting the establishment of a collaboration system with private prediction experts to minimize prediction uncertainty caused by changes in various factors such as population behavior and virus characteristics

Infectious Disease Prediction Analysis Cases

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  <2024 Summer COVID-19 ARI Prediction>

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  <24-25 Season Winter Influenza ARI Prediction>

◾ Progress - Systematic organization of the main forecasting models used during the COVID-19 period and develop the Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency’s own model - Providing a basis for decision-making in quarantine policies through predictions of the COVID-19 outbreak in summer 2024 and influenza outbreaks in winter - Promoting the establishment of a collaboration system with private prediction experts - Promoting research on the development of spatial and temporal simulations in preparation for pandemics ◾ Direction of work promotion - Performing short-term predictions and medium-to-long-term outlooks through collaboration with private experts during infectious disease outbreaks, and quantitatively analyzing the effectiveness of quarantine measures to support decision-making based on scientific evidence - Supporting the establishment of effective quarantine strategies from the early stages of a pandemic by building sophisticated simulation models and predicting infection transmission patterns and the effectiveness of quarantine measures across regions in advance to prepare for future pandemics

• Systematic organization of the main forecasting models used during the COVID-19 period and develop the Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency’s own model
• Providing a basis for decision-making in quarantine policies through predictions of the COVID-19 outbreak in summer 2024 and influenza outbreaks in winter
• Promoting the establishment of a collaboration system with private prediction experts
• Promoting research on the development of spatial and temporal simulations in preparation for pandemics

• Performing short-term predictions and medium-to-long-term outlooks through collaboration with private experts during infectious disease outbreaks, and quantitatively analyzing the effectiveness of quarantine measures to support decision-making based on scientific evidence
• Supporting the establishment of effective quarantine strategies from the early stages of a pandemic by building sophisticated simulation models and predicting infection transmission patterns and the effectiveness of quarantine measures across regions in advance to prepare for future pandemics